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"Facebook had a big impact on the 2016 Presidential election. Naturally, we wanted to know - what could the impact on 2020 look like?" Russell Tillitt, CEO and founder, Embee Mobile
SAN FRANCISCO, CA, October 27, 2020 /24-7PressRelease/ -- Today Embee Mobile, the company that builds and manages unique mobile-based insight communities, is announcing that its Real-Time 2020 Election Tracker now includes the ability to segment voter trends and intentions by a variety of behaviors such as regular use of social media apps and frequency of dining and shopping out.
"Social Media, and Facebook, in particular, had a big impact on the 2016 Presidential election," said Russell Tillitt, CEO and founder of Embee Mobile. "As it's been well reported, voters were influenced by the information, and disinformation, that they saw on social media in 2016. Naturally, we wanted to know - what could the impact on 2020 look like? So, we created our 2020 Election Tracker, using our own first-party mobile panel and behavioral data, to better understand how people's social media usage impacts and aligns with their political preferences."
Embee Mobile's Real-Time 2020 Election Tracker is updated in near real-time and each data point is the weighted total of all respondents in the previous 7 days. The tracker includes several ways to segment the data, including by social media apps people tend to us, including Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok, Reddit, and LinkedIn. The data highlighted below is from what the tracker was telling us on Monday, October 26th, with some reflection on data that was gathered on October 7th, 13th, and 20th.
How to Solve a Problem Like Facebook
The most narrow margin between candidates takes place on - you guessed it - Facebook, with 47% voting for Biden and 40% voting for Trump. This margin has ebbed and flowed, with one percent margins on October 20 (Biden 43%, Trump 42%) and on October 7th (Biden 41% and Trump 40%). However, on October 13th the margin had opened up considerably, with Biden at 46% and Trump at 38%. Is there a reason? Initially, the margin started widening in the week following Facebook's announcement completely banned all forms of content about the radical fringe conspiracy group QAnon from the platform but didn't stick, and it can't necessarily be attributed to the most recent 7% margin. To note, Facebook users are the only group that thinks - and by a slim margin - that Trump will win the election (39%) over Biden (38%).
48% of Voters Will Vote Before Election Day
Overall, 92% of voters have a voting plan and those plans indicate that 48% of voters will have already voted before November 3rd. Forty-four percent of voters currently intend to vote in person on Election day, which means Americans may be waiting for key battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to be decided in the days following the election, considering they won't start counting absentee and mail-in ballots until November 3rd.
So, who will and won't be voting in person on election day? The top platforms used by those who plan to vote in person on the day of the election include Facebook (48%), TikTok (43%), and Instagram (41%). The top platforms used by those who plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot include Reddit (37%), Instagram (35%), and Snapchat (33%).
Do LinkedIn Users Stand Alone, or Are They the Ones to Watch?
LinkedIn users are the most likely to vote for Biden (57%) rather than Trump (32%), and they also have the lowest number of undecided voters (9%). LinkedIn users have the greatest number of users (86%) intending to vote followed by Facebook and Instagram users where 78% of users on each platform intend to vote. LinkedIn users are also the group that most likely think Biden (51%) will win the election over Trump (30%).
Embee Mobile's Real-Time 2020 Election tracker utilizes single source behavioral and attitudinal data from a first-party mobile panel in the US. Embee Mobile collects mobile behaviors on all respondents and can see apps that they have used (including in-app activity in many cases), and the locations they have visited.
Want to see the data yourself? Go here!
About Embee Mobile
Embee Mobile is a privately-held SF-based technology company that builds and manages unique mobile-based insight communities, enabling its clients—some of the biggest consumer research companies and brands in the world—to gain rapid, accurate insights into the behaviors and experiences of mobile device users worldwide. It provides end-to-end research panel recruitment, rewards, and retention all within a single application. Embee Mobile's ground-breaking technology passively tracks and measures mobile users, collecting demographic, behavioral, and network performance data. Its scalable, seamless technologies and processes drive unprecedented panelist retention to provide deep, longitudinal insights unavailable through traditional panel methods. More information can be found at www.embeemobile.com
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